Columns

The 8,603 bouts whose published probability sits near even, cut three ways by how much this site has seen. Finished: 47.4% to 79.3%. Pick right: 51.4% to 41.1%. One even number, two different things.

Checked on 17,963 bouts. The win rate falls 18.1 points across the lay-off bands; at equal ratings the same fall is 8.8. What shrinks is the drop, not the rate — the rest was the rating turning rest into “unknown”.

Last time we measured how well the rating predicts. This time we look for where it stops working.

Checked against 65,639 bouts. Even 200 points ahead, the favourite loses one in three. With the same test on 90,562 boxing bouts.